Taking nuclear vulnerabilities seriously (The Hindu)

Mains Paper 2: International Relations 
Prelims level: Ammonium Nitrate
Mains level:  Important International institutions, agencies and fora, their structure, mandate

Context:

• Seventy-five years ago, the Japanese city of Hiroshima was destroyed by one single atomic bomb. Three days later, a second bomb destroyed Nagasaki. 
• Those two bombs killed over 2,00,000 people, some of them instantaneously, and others within five months. 
• Another 2,00,000 people or more who survived the bombings of these two cities, most of them injured, have been called the hibakusha. 
• Because of the long-lasting effects of radiation exposure as well as the mental trauma they underwent, the plight of these survivors has been difficult. 
• While Hiroshima and Nagasaki have been the last two cities to be destroyed by nuclear weapons, we cannot be sure that they will be the last. 
• Since 1945, the United States, the Soviet Union/Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea have armed themselves with nuclear weapons that have much more destructive power in comparison to those that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

 Damage and vulnerability:

• Over 1,26,000 nuclear weapons have been built since the beginning of the atomic age. 
• Over 2,000 of them have been used in nuclear tests, above and below the ground, to demonstrate their explosive power, causing grave and long-lasting damage to the environment and public health. 
• But this damage is nothing compared to what might happen if some of the existing weapons are used against civilian populations.
• An appreciation of the scale of the potential damage and a realisation that nuclear weapons could be launched at any moment against any target around the world should instill a sense of vulnerability in all of us.
• To appreciate why we are vulnerable, we should start by realising that there is no realistic way to protect ourselves against nuclear weapons, whether they are used deliberately, inadvertently, or accidentally. 
• The invention of ballistic missiles at the end of the 1950s, with their great speed of delivery, has made it impossible to intercept nuclear weapons once they are launched. 
• Neither fallout shelters nor ballistic missile defence systems have succeeded in negating this vulnerability. 
• Nuclear weapon states are targets of other nuclear weapon states, of course, but non-nuclear weapon states are vulnerable as well. 

Deterrence:

• Deterrence, in general, is the control of behaviour that is effected because the potential offender does not consider the behaviour worth risking for fear of its consequences. 
• A “deterrent effect” of sanctions is the preventive effect of the sanction(s) resulting from the fear that the sanction(s) will be implemented. 

The problems of deterrence:

• Nuclear weapon states have reacted to this vulnerability by coming up with a comforting idea: that the use of nuclear weapons is impossible because of deterrence. 
• Nuclear weapons are so destructive that no country would use them, because such use would invite retaliation in kind. That was the idea of deterrence.
• Deterrence enthusiasts claim that nuclear weapons do not just protect countries against use of nuclear weapons by others, but even prevent war and promote stability. 
• These claims do not hold up to evidence. Nuclear threats have not always produced fear and, in turn, fear has not always induced caution. 
• To the contrary, nuclear threats in some cases have produced anger, and anger can trigger a drive to escalate, as was the case with Fidel Castro during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
• Moreover, the apparent efficacy of deterrence in some cases may have been due to the more credible prospect of retaliation with conventional weapons. 
• Countries with nuclear weapons have in fact gone to war quite often, even with other countries with nuclear weapons, albeit in a limited fashion or through proxies. 
• Countries, however, might not always show such restraint. Nor should nuclear deterrence be considered stable. 
• Strategic planners routinely use worst-case assumptions about the intentions and capabilities of other countries to argue for the acquisition of greater destructive capabilities. 
• It drives endless upgrades of nuclear arsenals, and offering a rationale for new countries to acquire nuclear weapons.
• Implicitly, however, all nuclear weapon states have admitted to the possibility that deterrence could fail: they have made plans for using nuclear weapons, in effect, preparing to fight nuclear war. 

 The illusion of control:

• A related illusion concerns the controllability of nuclear weapons. In the real world, it is not possible for planners to have complete control. 
• However, the desire to believe in the perfect controllability and safety of nuclear weapons creates overconfidence, which is dangerous. 
• Overconfidence, as many scholars studying safety will testify, is more likely to lead to accidents and possibly to the use of nuclear weapons.
• In several historical instances, what prevented the use of nuclear weapons was not control practices but either their failure or factors outside institutional control. 
• The most famous of these cases is the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. 
• There are likely many more cases during which the world came close to nuclear war but because of the secrecy that surrounds nuclear weapons, we might never know.
• If deterrence has not prevented nuclear war so far, what has? 
• While a comprehensive answer to this question will necessarily involve diverse and contingent factors, one essential element in key episodes is just plain luck. 
• This is, again, best illustrated by the case of the Cuban Missile Crisis, where nearly four decades of scholarship attest to the crucial role of luck. 

 Conclusion:

• While humanity has luckily survived 75 years without experiencing nuclear war, can one expect luck to last indefinitely?

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Prelims Questions:

Q.1) With reference to the Muslim women rights day, consider the following statements:
1. The Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Marriage) Act, 2019 makes all declaration of triple talaq only in electronic form to be void and illegal.
2. One year has passed since the law against Triple Talaq was passed and there is a decline of about 82 per cent in Triple Talaq cases thereafter.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
A.   1 only
B.   2 only
C.   Both 1 and 2
D.   None 

Answer: B

Mains Questions:
Q.1) What is Ammonium Nitrate? How this can be safely stored then?